What does a recession really mean for a VC?
Downturn, what downturn? We don’t see a slowdown in the core business premise of our portfolio companies nor in the incumbents willingness to work with them…….yet.
What might cause that to change? We think it would have to be a substantial downturn in business activities with incumbents laying off and digging in for a prolonged drop in activity. We just don’t see that coming at this stage.
We do see the potential for a pull back or significant slowdown in 2019 or 2020. It is also possible that we get back to growth with a deal with China and a Fed less likely to raise rates.
In fact, we feel any slowdown is good! It takes out our weak competitors in FinTech. It lowers expectations on valuations in a healthy way. It makes capital a bit more precious which is good. It will be better used if considered very valuable.
We are already seeing this in the digital assets world. Bad projects are falling apart which is good. Good firms are getting funding to get them through crypto winter at better valuations for investors. Weak competition is going away. Professional investors are still entering the market and loving the volatility.
Our plan is to take as much advantage as we can of these conditions. Providing insight and staying power to our portfolio companies is a key activity for us in these moments.
Being a newer fund with a long time horizon and plenty of capital should provide an advantage at these moments of change. It should allow us to intelligently invest.
—The Vestigo Team